I recently appeared on the Patriots Nation Network podcast with my friends Pat Lane and Matt St. Jean, discussing how to fix the New England Patriots and the challenges that await this offseason. Check it out:

Seven-time Super-Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady had some harsh words for the modern NFL game last week, and quarterback / commentator Alex Smith fired back over the weekend, opining that Brady “played in the most uncompetitive division in NFL history”:

Alex Smith totally disagrees with Tom Brady's characterization of the NFL. pic.twitter.com/64FRRqM0jq

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) November 26, 2023

Brady’s “old man yells at cloud” routine certainly deserves some derision, but my question is: was Smith right? Some folks, many of them Patriots fans, have rebutted Smith’s argument:

Everyone celebrating Alex Smith here is denying the fact that the “Easy AFC East” myth is blatantly false propaganda from Brady/Patriots haters

Here’s how the Bills/Jets/Dolphins stack up to other teams ranked 2-4 in their division from 2000-2018

Doesn’t fit your narrative? Sad https://t.co/4ZlRrLvbSn pic.twitter.com/VJlQrVffLX

— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) November 26, 2023

Eric Eager of Sumer Sports suggested taking that Sam Sherman analysis and expanding it to all 32 teams, looking at the records of their three division opponents. As Eager suggested, I’m removing the team’s division games; obviously Miami, Buffalo, and the Jets suffered for having to play New England six times a year. For simplicity I limited this exercise to 2002-2019 (2001 had six divisions, not eight, and 31 teams).

I've recently started writing for NFLSpinZone. My first pieces are a series of offseason previews, where I look at the organizations, strengths, weaknesses, and assets of each team. I'll link each of the articles here.

Can the Carolina Panthers turn this around?

Uncharted waters for the New England Patriots

The New York Giants rebuild turns for the worse

Typical chaos in Raiderland (Las Vegas Raiders)

Chicago Bears well-positioned for rebuild

A lost year for the Cincinnati Bengals

Washington Commanders start over

the New York Jets try again

Arizona Cardinals in year zero

Tennessee Titans

I hosted a Zoom event on Tuesday, November 14th, a roundtable to commemorate the launch of my book The Inches We Need. Inside the Pylon compatriots Jeff Feyerer, Dan Hatman, and Mark Schofield joined to discuss my book at NFL team-building. Check out the video recording of the event on YouTube:

The New England Patriots, fresh off a 38-3 drubbing at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, laid another stinker on Sunday, this time a 34-0 beat-down by the New Orleans Saints, the worst home loss in franchise history. Here's a look at all teams since 2000 that have lost back-to-back games by 30 or more (courtesy of stathead.com):

It's surprising how not awful some of these teams were. The 2000 Browns finished with the second-worst point differential since 2000, but eight of these 13 teams won at least seven games (though none more than nine). There were even two playoff teams, the 2017 Bills and 2010 Seahawks. That Seattle team limped into the playoffs at 7-9 in a lousy division, but they won their first round matchup in the infamous "Beast Quake" game.

Seven of these teams had their streaks at the very beginning or very end of the season. The 2019 Dolphins were in the midst of an absolutely brutal 0-7 start. The Panthers, that same season, lost their final eight, capping it off with the two eviscerations that appear here. 

My read is that these blowouts do somewhat reflect these teams' true skill, at least during those games. Will Grier started those last two Panthers games, and Nathan Peterman started one of the Bills losses in 2017. Brian Brohm (Bills 2010) and Charlie Whitehurst (Seahawks 2010) each got a start; that's four fringe depth quarterbacks factoring in here. The 2001 Washington team and 2015 Colts featured the last gasps of the careers of Jeff George and Matt Hasselbeck. Carson Palmer nursed an elbow injury in 2008, forcing the Bengals to turn to an early-career Ryan Fitzpatrick (who appeared on two of the other teams in this list as well).

So teams come by back-to-back blowout defeats honestly ... but they can turn things around. Where does that leave the Patriots? They don't really have a viable backup behind Mac Jones, as Bailey Zappe has struggled in limited work and played so poorly in the preseason that the team waived him at the end of camp. They can keep mixing and matching on the offensive line or in the skill group; perhaps they will find a combination that can lift them out of the rut they're in. History shows things can get better; at least, they can't get much worse.

The Colts signed star running back Jonathan Taylor to a reported three-year, $42M contract extension with $26.5M guaranteed, ending a somewhat contentious stalemate. With a division matchup against the Titans looming, Indianapolis activated Taylor from the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, a designation that may or may not have been a negotiating ploy. But that's water under the bridge now; Taylor slots in third in average annual value (behind Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara) and fourth in total dollars (behind McCaffrey, Kamara, and Derrick Henry) among running backs.

Taylor enters his fourth year at only 24 years old, but running backs tend to age in dog years. Analysis by Pro Football Focus found running backs generate 58% of their value before age 25—the most of any position—and just eight percent after age 30—by far the least. Arguably, Taylor showed signs of slipping last year, missing six games and declining from 5.5 yards per carry and 18 touchdowns in his 2021 All Pro campaign to just 4.5 and four in 2022.

Teams and players both understand this dynamic. The declining interest in extending even very good running backs like Taylor and Saquon Barkley of the Giants has created chatter that the "running backs don't matter" movement has gone too far. Players, aware they have brief careers in which to get paid, will likely target extensions earlier, as Taylor did here. 

Running backs have historically been among the game's biggest stars, but the game's trend towards more and more passing has dimmed that star at least somewhat. But I do think some of the RB "hate" has gone too far. Many of the criticisms of running backs—they're replaceable, they rely on teammates for production, they can be drafted later—apply to most other positions on the football field as well. I'm not too keen on extending running backs because of the short shelf life of the position, but this Taylor deal strikes me as a pretty reasonable compromise on both sides.

Over The Cap projects the 2024 running back franchise tag at just north of $13M, so two franchise tags would cost about $29M (the second tag gets 120% of the first). With the guarantee coming in under that figure, this looks like a reasonable deal for Indianapolis. The third and final year of the deal likely will contain little in the way of guarantees, making this effectively a two-year commitment. I should add the caveat that we don't know the true terms of the deal yet. Money initially reported as "guaranteed" often turns out to be guaranteed for injury only.

The agreement here, as in the case of Lamar Jackson's extension in the offseason, serves as a reminder that no matter how acrimonious negotiations get, money has a way of smoothing over differences of opinion.

Ultimately, this deal probably doesn't move the needle in terms of the broader running back negotiations. It's good money for Taylor but not a big commitment from Indianapolis, which to my eyes makes it pretty fair. As long as running backs are constrained by rookie salary structure for their first four years—when they generate most of their value—they'll continue to be disadvantaged in the NFL contract landscape. We will likely see players like Taylor push for new money as early as they can, and for teams to push back.

If you liked this article, you will enjoy Chapter 4: The Salary Cap, and Chapter 7, where I get more into running back value, of my new team-building book The Inches We Need.

I have copies of my NFL team-building book to give away! Join my mailing list and share on Twitter or Facebook and I'll mail out a copy to one lucky winner next week!

https://www.theinchesweneed.com/page/join-mailing-list

A few weeks ago, John Vampatella released his terrific book 53rd Man about the trials and travails of back-of-the-roster types. Below is my Amazon review of the book, which I wholeheartedly recommend:

53rd Man paints an all-encompassing picture of what the experience is like for players at the back of an NFL roster. These men make rosters, they get waived, they get injured, they contribute to teams, they move their families around the country, they struggle with doubt ... the book runs the gamut of emotions while adding information and anecdotes you'll find nowhere else. Few of the players featured become stars, but I was moved reading about their growth as people over the course of their careers. Great read, inspiring!

John organized a book release party with The Boston Herald's Andrew Callahan and I was fortunate enough to join the show. He was even gracious enough to plug the book and let me talk about it. Check out the recording here: