Rookie Contract Value | The Inches We Need

davearchie

Fri, 09/15/2023 - 13:42

The other day I discussed whether the New England Patriots had a good foundation with some Scho Show Slack compatriots and I opined that their rookie contract talent probably ranked in the 20’s somewhere. It occurred to me that I had the data to answer this question.

This isn’t strictly rookie contract players as I’m using first-rounders from 2019 (who could or might be on their fifth-year option in 2023) and draft picks from 2020-2022. The most recent draftees haven’t played enough to factor in here. I’m only capturing draft picks, not undrafted free agents. And I’m relying on Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, for better or worse.

Rank	Team	AV
1	NYG	193
2	CIN	193
3	ATL	188
4	MIA	183
5	BAL	180
6	DAL	177
7	JAX	174
8	MIN	173
9	DET	168
10	PHI	161
11	CAR	161
12	WAS	156
13	SFO	153
14	PIT	153
15	GNB	152
16	LAC	149
17	DEN	149
18	BUF	147
19	NYJ	146
20	TAM	145
21	KAN	141
22	LVR	138
23	ARI	136
24	CHI	134
25	NWE	122
26	IND	122
27	HOU	115
28	SEA	115
29	CLE	109
30	TEN	94
31	LAR	75
32	NOR	67

The New York Giants surprised me by ranking tied for first, but they’ve made a whopping eight first-round picks during the time period. Even with Deandre Baker flaming out (just 6 wAV), their earlier picks from 2019, Daniel Jones (38 wAV) and Dexter Lawrence (31 wAV), have carried a lot of the weight. Perhaps that’s a flaw in the methodology; older picks factor in more heavily because they’ve had more time to accrue AV, while arguably they are less valuable because they are approaching the end of their rookie deals (Jones already signed a big extension).

The Cincinnati Bengals also had a great run, but more expectedly. Drafting Joe Burrow (38 wAV), Tee Higgins (26 wAV), and Ja’Marr Chase (23 wAV) will do that. The Atlanta Falcons are more unexpected at number three; like the Giants, they are buoyed by multiple 2019 first-rounders (Chris Lindstrom, 26 wAV, and Kaleb McGary, 28 wAV).

If we exclude the 2019 picks, the Bengals hold at #2, but Dallas leapfrogs them to #1, keyed by Micah Parsons (36 wAV), CeeDee Lamb (32 wAV), and Trevon Diggs (27 wAV). The Falcons slide to 10th, while the Giants drop all the way to 18th.

At the other end of the spectrum we have two teams who haven’t made a lot of picks. The Saints didn’t have a first-rounder in 2019 and made just 15 total picks between 2020 and 2022. The Los Angeles Rams famously haven’t made a first-round pick since 2016. The Tennessee Titans have made a full complement of picks, but the disastrous choices of Isaiah Wilson (0 wAV) and Caleb Farley (1 wAV) have hurt. They finish last in this metric if we exclude 2019 first-rounder Jeffery Simmons (37 wAV).

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